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ISTM that it's going to be near impossible to convince the state of California to do this in any case, when VW/BMW have said that they're going to install dual-standard chargers every 50 miles, and eVgo has already installed and is installing dual-standard chargers in the major urban areas plus has made a start on the San Joaquin Valley. Why should we want the state to be involved, when it will be necessary for long-term success that private companies take this on and figure out how to make it pay? As you point out, we've done the government-subsidized route with Blink/350green already, and that was a massive fail; even AV was a limited success. I don't believe Tesla's business model is transferable to the mass market, so we need to let some other companies or the utilities give it a shot, and at this point I don't see that they should need to be subsidized, here; we're 4+ years in, the beginner mistakes have been made and the equipment has been through a cycle or two of development. If they can't make it pay now, how will they ever? It's not as if there's some low-hanging technical fruit remaining to be plucked. Only extremely low-cost energy storage to reduce demand charges is likely to give major operating cost reductions, as I think we're beyond the point where QC costs are likely to see large price drops due to volume. Some small drop, sure, but probably not enough to make these profitable by themselves. And we're probably still at least two years away from having semi-mass market BEVs that are really practical for inter-regional road trips.
ISTM that it's going to be near impossible to convince the state of California to do this in any case, when VW/BMW have said that they're going to install dual-standard chargers every 50 miles, and eVgo has already installed and is installing dual-standard chargers in the major urban areas plus has made a start on the San Joaquin Valley. Why should we want the state to be involved, when it will be necessary for long-term success that private companies take this on and figure out how to make it pay?
As you point out, we've done the government-subsidized route with Blink/350green already, and that was a massive fail; even AV was a limited success. I don't believe Tesla's business model is transferable to the mass market, so we need to let some other companies or the utilities give it a shot, and at this point I don't see that they should need to be subsidized, here; we're 4+ years in, the beginner mistakes have been made and the equipment has been through a cycle or two of development. If they can't make it pay now, how will they ever?
It's not as if there's some low-hanging technical fruit remaining to be plucked. Only extremely low-cost energy storage to reduce demand charges is likely to give major operating cost reductions, as I think we're beyond the point where QC costs are likely to see large price drops due to volume. Some small drop, sure, but probably not enough to make these profitable by themselves. And we're probably still at least two years away from having semi-mass market BEVs that are really practical for inter-regional road trips.
