xylhim said:
I'm kind omf curious, it says in my Ally contract that at the end of the lease, I may have a mutually agreed upon appraiser asssess the value of the car. Now, if the vehicle is worth much less than the residual, I may be able to negotiate with Ally to buy-out at a much lower price. If this scenario plays out, then it works out almost the same to buy at the end of the lease than to buy it outright to begin with.
Yeah, this is exactly what I was thinking. For me, buying is like forced-savings. If I lease a car at $262/mo for 35 months with $500 down, (a current quote I got - not to say it's the best deal, but it's not too bad), that's a total cost of $9,670 and a residual of $16,423. But factor in the $2,500 from California, and we're looking at $7,170...
This same car on a buy, with 2.5% interest, $10,000 back from fed/CA, on a 36 month loan would be about $20,000 out of pocket in 3 years, including tax and license fees. So, I'm putting out $20,000, but in the end, I have a car supposedly worth $16,423. Looking at a 3 year old (2012) Leaf, I see it's between $14,000 and almost $16,000. New, after incentives, this car would have been... what...? $25,000? So that's about 56-60% of new after 3 years. So, one could expect that the Spark EV could be in the same ballpark, or about $11,000-12,000 for a 3 year old, probably worst-case. Especially if the Republicans gut everything and remove the incentives. Very worst case, the car is worth $10,000 on a trade in - towards a new, $30,000 car, (after incentives, if they still exist), like the Bolt.
If I can negotiate on the lease when I got to trade it in, I might get them down to $12,000, if that's the blue book on it. Add that to the $7,170 I've put out, and we're almost at the same $20,000 I would have spent on a purchase. I would have a lot lower payments for the next 3 years than on a brand new Tesla or Bolt, but, I wouldn't have the range. Buying a Spark now means I'd be trading in to buy or lease a $28,000 Bolt, after incentives, or $18,000-20,000 loan. $8,000-10,000 more than the used Spark, after my trade-in, but I get this shiny new car. Downside is I have a $580 car payment for 6 years - but in the end, I have a Tesla or a Bolt, and not a Spark. And, I'll have put out $38,000-40,000 for the Bolt or Tesla, versus $20,000-24,000 for the Spark, depending on if I can get them down on the residual. So, it's like buying a Bolt 3 years from now, without any incentives, but getting to drive around a fun car during the 3 years leading up to it for the same price as buying it 3 years from now on a 3 year loan.
Buying the Spark on a 3 yr lease then 3 yr loan means I own the car for $20,000-24,000, with payments of $200/mo for 3 years, then $350-460/mo for 3 years, ($12,000-16,000 residual), roughly, versus a steady 6-yr loan payment of $580/mo for the Spark-then-Bolt/Tesla.
Lastly, if you lease a Spark and turn it in to buy a Bolt/Tesla on a 3 year loan, you'll have put out almost the same for the Spark buy then Bolt buy - but your payments would be $200/mo the Spark then $865/mo for the Bolt...
To me, I think if you're committed to an EV and want one now, and you also want the next gen EV with more range, buying makes a little more sense - if you can afford the payments. If not, you'll lease forever and always have the latest and greatest, but will never own your car. (I did that for 20 years, and always had nice cars) Leasing then buying is just too brutal a payment for the last 3 years, and sure, you can go 6 years to get the payment down, but... that's a long time to be making payments.
It's always a tough decision, but, I honestly think buying is a better way to go in the long run. It forces you to average your payments out. And, who knows what leases or interest rates or incentives will be like 3 years down the road.
