cwerdna said:
MNL has 17,808 users vs. 862 on this forum.
That is part of the reason. But I suspect bigger reason is that Bolt isn't as appealing to SparkEV as Leaf for reasons discussed before. I'll summarize below.
1) People who bought Leaf early had no choice. It's either $23K-28K Leaf or $60K Tesla, even if they could afford $30K for better car. For them, Bolt is hugely exciting.
2) People who bought SV/SL for longer range at $25K (or $28K), Bolt offers significantly more bang for the buck. Looking at used car market, Leaf SV model is overwhelming majority even for 24 kWh models; I describe this in my blog when researching SparkEV pricing and depreciation. That tells me that the majority of Leaf buyers could've bought $30K Bolt if given a choice, which is why they are so excited.
http://sparkev.blogspot.com/2016/02/sparkev-pricing-and-depreciation.html
3) People who bought S with or without DCFC are price conscious, and Bolt probably doesn't hold as much fancy as above two. But Bolt with much more performance and 5 seats like Leaf, it would hold some interest.
4) People who bought SparkEV had choice of myriad of other similar range EV at higher price. For them, 4 seats work fine for $18K (or $16K now that the rebate is back). Also, SparkEV isn't so bad in acceleration. Rather, some (or just me) find it appealing that tiny car can perform so well, and take pride in that it's the quickest car in the world for its price. That isn't true with Bolt or Leaf or any other than Tesla with Ludicrous.
5) New point here is that SparkEV is newer relative to Leaf. There are lots of used Leaf drivers just itching to upgrade where as not as many used SparkEV drivers who's been wringing their hands to upgrade. Indeed, leases are just now coming due, and upgrade is ways off for most SparkEV.
cwerdna said:
I'm not sure what you mean by "For Leaf, 5 seat $25K." $29,010 - $7500 = $21,150, not $25K.
I mean SV/SL. I have to wonder how much interest for Bolt is there for people who bought base Leaf S when SV/SL with much longer range is available. I suspect there's only just bit more excitement than SparkEV crowd.
cwerdna said:
The OBC wattage chatter came up because you said "$35K+ SV/SL with longer range"
I see now. And that is exactly what I'm talking about. Those people chose to upgrade from base to price close to what Bolt would cost. They are precisely the people who would get very excited about Bolt. And based on used car market, I suspect they are the majority.
cwerdna said:
That said, whenever the Bolt ships and if it meets the prices they've announced, I readily admit that Leaf sales will most likely plummet
Yeah, this is the sad part. Though I hate Nissan for their stupid "no charge to piss people off" program (aka, NCTC), I appreciate that they had the guts to jump start EV 2.0 era. But they should come up with better cars than rely on NCTC stupidity. Hopefully, next gen Leaf will be out and better than all cars in their price range and not need stupid program like NCTC.