DC fast charging: J1772 CCS vs CHAdeMO vs Supercharger, etc.

[cwerdna]

... So for example, say between January and December 2014 there was a maximum of 450 and minimum of 125 Spark EVs sold / month; the rest of the monthly sales fall somewhere between that range of 125-450. If in fact the sales growth is linear, you still can't project past the 450 units / month figure with any amount of certainty, it's a violation of basic statistics if you do...
DL;DR: How can we be sure what the sales forecast is going to be when no data exists to make an accurate extrapolation?

You might want to adjust your "450 per month" dream...

376 sold in CARB states California and Oregon only

July 2013 - 103
Aug 2013 - 102
Sep 2013 - 78
Oct 2013 - 66
Nov 2013 -

To finish this off, from http://insideevs.com/december-2013-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/, 76 Spark EVs were sold in December 2013, making for a total of 539 for the months it was sold in 2013.

Seems like 450 month is still a dream... If we toss the 1st month (of 27 units in June) as an aberration, incomplete month or whatever, for the rest, the average has been 85.3 units/month.

Update for 2014 so far.

We'll get August 2014 numbers in a few days. From http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/, 764 Spark EVs were sold in 2014 so far, for an average of ~109 units/month. Only 2 months have passed xylhim's 125 minimum a month and the average is below that minimum. They've yet to move more even 200 units/month, let alone 450.

 

[Sparkler]

Such negativity in this thread...

Ah, well just ignore it.

I have been to all the current DCFC's in the Bay Area in the last week or so. Belmont @ VWGA, Nob Hill Foods in Mt. View, and yesterday the one at City Hall in Benicia. Aside from the one at Nob Hill they all worked great. Nob Hill one did not respond to my new RFID card, and I had to call to get it activated. Going back to Benicia tomorrow. So far they are located at spots that are convenient to me, on the way to SFO, and on the way to my property in the north bay. Looking forward to one in Monterey or Santa Cruz, hopefully before I need to go down that way.

 

[gra]

Such negativity in this thread...

Ah, well just ignore it.

I have been to all the current DCFC's in the Bay Area in the last week or so. Belmont @ VWGA, Nob Hill Foods in Mt. View, and yesterday the one at City Hall in Benicia. Aside from the one at Nob Hill they all worked great. Nob Hill one did not respond to my new RFID card, and I had to call to get it activated. Going back to Benicia tomorrow. So far they are located at spots that are convenient to me, on the way to SFO, and on the way to my property in the north bay. Looking forward to one in Monterey or Santa Cruz, hopefully before I need to go down that way.

We can all push for Gilroy, still the biggest missing CHAdeMO location despite people asking for one there for the past 3 years, and Tesla having put in a Supercharger. Gilroy makes Monterey easily doable (40 miles), although there's still a dearth of convenient L2 in the Monterey area. From Mountain View you can get to Santa Cruz and back.

 

[xylhim]

We'll get August 2014 numbers in a few days. From http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/, 764 Spark EVs were sold in 2014 so far, for an average of ~109 units/month. Only 2 months have passed xylhim's 125 minimum a month and the average is below that minimum. They've yet to move more even 200 units/month, let alone 450.

Stop putting words in my mouth please, this was a hypothetical about the error in trying to extrapolate beyond a given range of data. I could care less how many Spark EVs are sold, but guesstimating DC fast charger adoption based on sales figures is really silly. When this thread was started would you have believed that BMW would be releasing fast charging units for $6000 and that NRG would be installing SAE combo at all their current fast charging stations in California?

On plugshare now there are 23 SAE combo units across the country in less than one year since its initial rollout; how many did Chademo have in it's first year in North America?

 

[TonyWilliams]

that NRG would be installing SAE combo at all their current fast charging stations in California?

On plugshare now there are 23 SAE combo units across the country in less than one year since its initial rollout; how many did Chademo have in it's first year in North America?

BMW and VW are anxiously trying to get these Bosch units installed. No, I didn't imagine that they would offer only a 25kW machine to compete against 50kW CHAdeMO (typical). But, for less cost you get less performance.

The NRG included Combo1 from the beginning. So, yes, it was required per their contract.

NRG/EVgo Deal:

https://www.evgonetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/NRG-Leave-Behind-1-EV-Infrastructure-Agreement-4-27-12-FINAL.pdf

Initially all Freedom Stations shall have one
(1) or more DC Fast Chargers compatible with the CHAdeMo
Standard and one (1) Level 2 Charger compatible with the SAE
Standard. Upon the occurrence of (A) approval by SAE for a
charger standard for DC Fast Chargers and (B) the commercial
availability from at least two (2) unaffiliated manufacturers of one
or more DC Fast Chargers that are SAE Standard compatible or
equipment capable of making the Freedom Stations’ DC Fast
Chargers compatible with both the SAE Standard and the
CHAdeMo Standard (and in each case that are approved by the
Nationally Recognized Testing Laboratories), then NRG shall have
six (6) months to complete the modification of all installed
Freedom Stations to include at least one (1) SAE Standard
compatible DC Fast Charger and one (1) CHAdeMo Standard
compatible DC Fast Charger or one (1) CHAdeMo+SAE DC
Charger. Thereafter, all newly installed Freedom Stations will
have at least one (1) DC Fast Charger that is SAE Standard
compatible.

 

[gra]

The monthly e-mail newsletter from Chargepoint included the following Press release:

"ChargePoint Network Rapidly Adds New DC Fast Chargers"

"Campbell, Calif. – At today’s Plug-In 2014 Conference, ChargePoint announced that the BMW i DC Fast Charger and Efacec station models, will be the first SAE Combo chargers on the ChargePoint network. Currently ChargePoint has nearly 100 DC fast chargers on their open network of over 18,000 charging locations."

“While ChargePoint’s level 2 charging stations are compatible with all EV models, no fast charging station can charge all cars,” Pasquale Romano, ChargePoint CEO. “Today, there are only a handful of SAE Combo fast charging stations in North America and we’re excited to add two additional fast charging station models onto the ChargePoint network. We are thrilled to see the launch of additional EVs on the market with fast charging capabilities and are committed to supporting charging for all cars and drivers.”

“A robust charging network of DC Combo fast chargers is critical for the future of electric mobility,” said Robert Healey, EV Infrastructure Manager at BMW of North America. “In working with our partners to install hundreds of BMW i DC Fast Chargers in convenient locations across the U.S., we are able to make DC Combo fast charging more accessible for BMW i3 drivers while demonstrating BMW’s continued commitment to the future of driving electric.”

ChargePoint manufactures its own infrastructure and through its innovative OnRamp program, allows for third-party charging stations to run on the ChargePoint network. With the addition of the BMW i DC Fast Charger and Efacec, there are now stations from nine different hardware providers on our open network.

“Efacec is pleased to be partnering with ChargePoint to integrate our DC Fast Chargers into the ChargePoint OnRamp program,” said Mike Anderson, Sales Manager of EV Chargers for Efacec USA."

 

[cwerdna]

We'll get August 2014 numbers in a few days. From http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/, 764 Spark EVs were sold in 2014 so far, for an average of ~109 units/month. Only 2 months have passed xylhim's 125 minimum a month and the average is below that minimum. They've yet to move more even 200 units/month, let alone 450.

Stop putting words in my mouth please, this was a hypothetical about the error in trying to extrapolate beyond a given range of data. I could care less how many Spark EVs are sold, but guesstimating DC fast charger adoption based on sales figures is really silly. When this thread was started would you have believed that BMW would be releasing fast charging units for $6000 and that NRG would be installing SAE combo at all their current fast charging stations in California?

On plugshare now there are 23 SAE combo units across the country in less than one year since its initial rollout; how many did Chademo have in it's first year in North America?

You're the one that came up with the numbers. We suggested that you adjust your dream. GM moved 80 Spark EVs in the US last month.

Again, the sales numbers do matter. If volumes are small, there's no business justification for anyone (e.g. the automaker selling SAE Combo cars or charging networks) to bother adding support for SAE Combo either via a dual standard DC FC vs. a single or adding a 2nd DC FC. California "lucked out" in that GM was clever enough to force their terms into the NRG eVgo settlement.

As for BMW's "$6000" DC FCs, the price is $6548 subsidized, not including installation. As I've posted earlier, there still a huge additional cost to install. See http://www.mychevysparkev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3753. And, how many have been installed anywhere? So far, the number appears to be 0.

How many SAE Combo DC FCs has GM installed for public use?

Let's do some math. Let's assume installing a DC FC costs only the hardware (which it doesn't): $6,548, if you're qualified for the subsidized price and electricity is free, which it's not. If they charged $5/session, it would take 1309.6 sessions to break even. At $5/session (price for Blink members on their DC FCs ($8/session for non-members) before they switched to another pricing model, but doesn't seem to have gone into effect everywhere yet), let's assume they only got 3 sessions/day. It would take 1.2 years to breakeven, and that assumes the DC FC requires no maintenance (http://nissanqc.com/ requires periodic cleaning of its 5 air filters otherwise they'll hit temperature errors and stop working) and doesn't break down once. I've not seen a single DC FC in the Bay Area go an entire year w/o being out-of-order/breaking down in some way. It doesn't seem like they can go even 6 months w/o a breakdown.

Let's adjust the above numbers. Let's say it cost $16,548 for the subsidized hardware and $10K to install (1/2 of the $20K wiring cost at http://www.americas.fujielectric.co... Comparison Study (25kW vs 50kW) 7-3-12.pdf). Let's assume that the electricity from a DC FC session only cost $1 to the provider (too low, as it doesn't take into account demand charges and too low based on typical per kWh California costs) and that they still charge $5/session. It would take 4,137 sessions to recoup the cost of the (too low) DC FC hardware, install cost and (too low) electricity. Assuming 3 sessions/day, that's 3.78 years.

As for the NRG eVgo settlement, that was decided before I even started this thread. I didn't know the details, at the time.

As for 23, I see only 18 now in the 48 states. It's confirmed that http://www.plugshare.com/?location=40253 (at https://www.facebook.com/groups/seattlenissanleaf/permalink/833657249999047/) has no DC FC. In fact, he said he talked to 3 people at the dealer and they didn't even know what at DC FC/QC was.

 

[cwerdna]

I'm still unsure if the Marin BMW one actually exists.

Sonnen BMW http://api.plugshare.com/view/location/39966 is now set to only have J1772, level 2. There's no DC FC there.

People need to stop posting 'coming soon' locations on Plugshare..

Yep.

633 CHAdeMO DC Fast Chargers In The U.S., 3,816 Worldwide
http://insideevs.com/633-chademo-dc-fast-chargers-u-s-3740-worldwide/
http://www.chademo.com/
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1093001_nissans-dc-quick-charging-stations-630-chademo-sites-live-today

http://www.chademo.com/ now shows the count is at 700 in the US.

 

[xylhim]

You're the one that came up with the numbers. We suggested that you adjust your dream. GM moved 80 Spark EVs in the US last month.

Well, I guess my only response left to this is: http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/i_know_you_are_pee_wee_herman.gif

Again, the sales numbers do matter. If volumes are small, there's no business justification for anyone (e.g. the automaker selling SAE Combo cars or charging networks) to bother adding support for SAE Combo either via a dual standard DC FC vs. a single or adding a 2nd DC FC. California "lucked out" in that GM was clever enough to force their terms into the NRG eVgo settlement.

Sales numbers don't mean much when the entire EV industry is being driven by tax incentives and government subsidies (with the exception of Tesla). That NRG deal single handly is going to ramp the progress of SAE combo chargers from ~20 to close to 100 within a couple years. CHADeMO struggled in its first year too but eventually grew quickly. Infact, if you compare the intital release of CHADeMO chargers outside of Japan, its growth was a lot more meager than SAE. Check out this graph I threw together comparing the intital roll out year of ChADeMO vs SAE: http://imgur.com/K3dVgGW . CHADeMO is even given a clear advantage because these numbers are for the entire world (excluding Japan, see: http://insideevs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/graphing-CHAdeMO-change-01-22-13.jpg). However, this graph I made is of such a limited amount of time, that its extremely difficult to try and project what the future holds for CCS, it wouldn't surprise me if it completely crashed in a couple years, or exploded upwards. One government policy could immediately change this outcome.

As for BMW's "$6000" DC FCs, the price is $6548 subsidized, not including installation. As I've posted earlier, there still a huge additional cost to install. See http://www.mychevysparkev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3753. And, how many have been installed anywhere? So far, the number appears to be 0.

So according to this article: http://insideevs.com/current-cost-of-50-kw-chademo-dc-quick-charger-around-16500/ a 50KW CHADeMO unit is 16K; I don't think that price gap is insignificant when luring property owners to have some form of fast charging on their premise. It would be a good idea for the CHADeMO consortium to follow suit and release a similar lower power, but lower cost DCFS. Oh and as for installation, BMW just announced this a couple months back, who do they look like, Tesla? :lol:

How many SAE Combo DC FCs has GM installed for public use?

Beats me, how come Toyota didn't put CHADeMO on their new RAV4's?

Let's adjust the above numbers. Let's say it cost $16,548 for the subsidized hardware and $10K to install (1/2 of the $20K wiring cost at http://www.americas.fujielectric.co... Comparison Study (25kW vs 50kW) 7-3-12.pdf). Let's assume that the electricity from a DC FC session only cost $1 to the provider (too low, as it doesn't take into account demand charges and too low based on typical per kWh California costs) and that they still charge $5/session. It would take 4,137 sessions to recoup the cost of the (too low) DC FC hardware, install cost and (too low) electricity. Assuming 3 sessions/day, that's 3.78 years.

You could make this argument with any standard, and I'm sure its something CHADeMO had to deal with early in its roll-out. CHADeMO had the advantage of being supported by Nissan, SAE is getting some government help, but it will take a major player like BMW to push it forward. I'm not convinced that either standard has what it takes to compete with Tesla and its well planned rollout of superchargers, but I really don't see the evidence that points to any one being "DOA" or "Moribund".

 

[cwerdna]

The other day, I noticed that http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/IRC-30D-Plug-In-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit-Quarterly-Sales says "2011-2013 Nissan Leaf" Cumulative Sales to Date are 72,294 with "Page Last Reviewed or Updated: 02-Sep-2014".

If I add up US i3 and Spark EV sales at http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/, I arrive at 3465. And, we all know the Combo1 inlet is optional. If we assumed (incorrectly) that all Spark EVs sold in December 2013 and all i3's and Spark EVs sold in 2014 have Combo1, we'd arrive at 3002 units.

 

[Nashco]

I have one orange car, three white ones, two silver ones, a green one, and a black one.

I have had EV road trips in two cars with SAE Combo plugs, one car with chademo, one with an old Tesla, and none with a new Tesla plug.

The letter s and i appear in the name Mississippi an equal number of times.

Is there a point to us spewing out these seemingly useless statistics, or is this just the usual trolling?

Bryce

 

[cwerdna]

^^^
Nope. Not useless at all.

I and others have gone over this over and over again. I recently revisited it partly at http://www.mychevysparkev.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=8700#p8700.

Companies are in business to make money. If there's no profit, the company will go under. Those purchasing and installing DC FCs make decisions on what they purchase, what they support and how many, hopefully using some logic. Those not using logic do so at their own peril.

This is the reality of the situation.

There is some good/bad of installing "Freedom Stations". If installing a SAE Combo DC FC means that there's a CHAdeMO plug right next to it, that's great for CHAdeMO. Unfortunately, that extra money to either buy a dual-standard DC FC or installing two DC FC (one for each standard) means money was wasted that could've instead meant deploying more CHAdeMO stations, which would have far greater benefit since the population of CHAdeMO compatible vehicles is FAR greater.

I've continued to see US BMW i3 drivers confused when they visit a DC FC and find it that it's CHAdeMO and won't fit. And it means that someone has to explain to them all the incompatible DC FC standards.. yada yada yada... https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204567870653685&set=gm.709575555782975&type=1&permPage=1 was one from 9/21/14.

And, the opposite has happened... Two Leafers at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=390556#p390556 were confused by SAE Combo on their i3 multi-day test drive vehicles.

Gotta love the confusion created by this additional standard...

 

[Nashco]

I and others have gone over this over and over again.

Despite nobody asking for the information!!! Don't you ever get tired of hearing your own voice? We hear you banging your drum, but it's so tedious and tired. Nobody here gives a crap about Leaf sales volumes from 2011-2013. I have a Leaf, I'm glad it existed when I got it two years ago. I have a Spark EV, I'm glad it existed when I got it a year ago. I put 750 miles on a BMW i3 last weekend, I'm glad it exists today. I've used 7 (Efacec) DC fast chargers around the Portland area that can service all of these cars, I'm glad they exist. Your information above serves no purpose to anybody here, just like all of the information I've put into my last two posts here.

Based on your comments, it sounds like you should be spending some time helping those ignorant about DC fast chargers learn the difference between the standards. Tell people about Plugshare. Make some signage for local charging stations. Go to local dealers with some training information and handouts to provide to customers. These would all be useful things to do with your time. Coming into this thread and spewing useless information (without any prompting) about sales volumes of a few particular car models isn't going to keep a Leaf owner from trying to plug in to a Tesla station (or an iPhone user from buying a USB charge cable instead of a proprietary one, or an American traveler from using their magnetic credit card in a chip machine).

I know better than to feed the trolls. You seem like an intelligent person, so I can't understand why you won't at least acknowledge that you're serving as the epitomy of an internet troll with posts like that:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

Bryce

 

[nozferatu]

I and others have gone over this over and over again.

Despite nobody asking for the information!!! Don't you ever get tired of hearing your own voice? We hear you banging your drum, but it's so tedious and tired. Nobody here gives a crap about Leaf sales volumes from 2011-2013. I have a Leaf, I'm glad it existed when I got it two years ago. I have a Spark EV, I'm glad it existed when I got it a year ago. I put 750 miles on a BMW i3 last weekend, I'm glad it exists today. I've used 7 (Efacec) DC fast chargers around the Portland area that can service all of these cars, I'm glad they exist. Your information above serves no purpose to anybody here, just like all of the information I've put into my last two posts here.

Based on your comments, it sounds like you should be spending some time helping those ignorant about DC fast chargers learn the difference between the standards. Tell people about Plugshare. Make some signage for local charging stations. Go to local dealers with some training information and handouts to provide to customers. These would all be useful things to do with your time. Coming into this thread and spewing useless information (without any prompting) about sales volumes of a few particular car models isn't going to keep a Leaf owner from trying to plug in to a Tesla station (or an iPhone user from buying a USB charge cable instead of a proprietary one, or an American traveler from using their magnetic credit card in a chip machine).

I know better than to feed the trolls. You seem like an intelligent person, so I can't understand why you won't at least acknowledge that you're serving as the epitomy of an internet troll with posts like that:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

Bryce

LOL...well said. It really truly is getting extremely tiring seeing the same old people post drivel and criticism about crap we don't really care about. Honestly this isn't rocket science I'm sure people who own these cars will find their way around eventually if not the first time.

I've yet to hear Spark EV owners complain about their charging and plug and station issues.

 

[gambit]

@nashco - well said!

I've been reduced to occasionally lurking on this forum to glean any useful SparkEV information. I am continually amused by the amount of furious typing that goes on by non-SparkEV owners to make a point or position. I hope that they're happy that they're 'winning' whatever they are trying to 'win'.

(BTW - I'm such a loser)

 

[xylhim]

Well, it is hard not to become a "fanboy" for whatever standard with which one has spent their hard earned money. However, one thing that frustrates me with both Chademo and CCS is that there is little thought to where the stations go, other than dealerships or shopping malls. It may be the path of least resistance for the installing party, but for the end user, it makes absolutely no sense. Meanwhile, Tesla rolls out their super charger network with the intention of their customers using it for long distance travel. Sometimes superchargers are in major cities, but often they're out in rural America, the very place where one would need a quick charge. On the other hand, having a quick charger at a shopping mall is almost novelty; level 2 charging is perfectly fine for this.

I'm thinking about driving my Spark from Southern California to Canada (Edmonton) for school, just to see if I can. Of course, there are enough level two chargers rolled out to make the trip, but if there were only fast charging stations lined up every 50-80 miles along interstate 5, it would make the trip a breeze. Oregon has done right with their electric highway of Chedemo chargers, but I wonder how much Nissan helped out with this smart distribution? In the end, if the private company can't step up and do the right thing, the government has to step in and make the course correction.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I'm thinking about driving my Spark from Southern California to Canada (Edmonton) for school, just to see if I can. Of course, there are enough level two chargers rolled out to make the trip, but if there were only fast charging stations lined up every 50-80 miles along interstate 5, it would make the trip a breeze. Oregon has done right with their electric highway of Chedemo chargers, but I wonder how much Nissan helped out with this smart distribution? In the end, if the private company can't step up and do the right thing, the government has to step in and make the course correction.

I drove a Nissan LEAF from Mexico to Canada in 2012 with very little charging infrastructure in California, but when I arrived in Oregon, it was a fantastic experience. I crossed Oregon in 12 hours exactly (and the first person to do so with all CHAdeMO charging). Washington state was just a bit longer. Quick charging is a game changer for electric car travel,mand they did it right in the Pacific Northwest.

I made this trip both ways in the Toyota RAV4 EV during BC2BC-2013. While that car currently does not have a CHAdeMO port, we are in the process of developing that capability (also, for Mercedes B-Class ED).

Nissan had no specific interaction with the Oregon and Washington state "West Coast Electric Highway". California is a signatory, but not a participant, since they are enamored with hydrogen cars.

Good luck with your trip.

 

[TonyWilliams]

CHAdeMO is still adding stations quickly:

“The number of CHAdeMO DC Quick chargers installed up to today is 4241.
– (Japan 2129, Europe 1327, USA 731, Others 54)

 

[gra]

Just to be complete, there are also 718 SCs in the U.S., something over 400 CCS-2 in Europe, and 20+ CCS-1 in the U.S. and Canada. There are maybe 5 eVgo CCS-1 or dual mode chargers shown on Plugshare as 'coming soon' in California.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Just to be complete, there are also 700+ SCs in the U.S., something over 400 CCS-2 in Europe, and 20+ CCS-1 in the U.S. and Canada. There are maybe 5 eVgo CCS-1 or dual mode chargers shown on Plugshare as 'coming soon' in California.

I'm not sure how to count Superchargers. Is it 700... or 120+ stations?

I started my drive from San Diego to San Jose area (Los Gatos) tonight. 530 miles. All CHAdeMO charges except in San Luis Obispo area. I'm already in north Los Angeles, leaving for Santa Barbara soon.

I haven't used quick charging since my last LEAF in 2012. Awesome!!!


Rav4 EV with "JdeMO", quick charging in Irvine, California, enroute to NorCal: